2020 - PA 7th District Poll | Muhlenberg College

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District Poll: September 2020

The 7th Congressional District was established in 2018 through a court ordered redistricting in Pennsylvania, and consists of all of Lehigh and Northampton Counties and the southern section of Monroe County. Had the district been formed in 2016, Hillary Clinton would have won the district by a single percentage point, making it one of the more competitive congressional districts in the Commonwealth.

Key Findings:

With Election Day 2020 about 5 weeks away, first term Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild holds a 13-point lead (52%-39%) over Republican nominee Lisa Scheller in Pennsylvania’s 7^th Congressional District.

Wild’s 13-point lead is slightly larger than her margin of victory in the 2018 midterm election when she beat Republican nominee Marty Nothstein by 10 points (54%-44%), and is driven by large leads among women, college educated voters, and voters living in Lehigh County.
In Pennsylvania’s 7^th Congressional District, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 7-point lead (51%-44%) over President Donald Trump among likely voters. Looking back at 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 1% in the area that currently makes up the 7^th District.

Like his fellow Democrat Susan Wild, Joe Biden’s modest lead in the 7^th District is driven by strong performances among voters living in Lehigh County, female voters and voters with a 4-year college degree.
The economy was identified by 27% of likely voters in the district as the most important issue in their decision in the congressional election, with the Coronavirus pandemic (17%), health care (16%), and law and order (15%) also commonly identified by voters as the key issue driving their vote in the race.
About 6 out of 10 (59%) likely voters in the 7^th District report that they intend to vote in person this November, with about 1 in 3 intending to vote by mail (36%).
Among likely 7^th District voters about 1 in 4 (27%) indicated, that as of the day they were surveyed, they did not feel safe voting in person.
Likely voters in the Pennsylvania 7^th CD are divided on the threat of fraud associated with extensive mail-in voting this fall, with 51% agreeing that there is a greater chance of fraud if most Pennsylvanians vote by mail, and 44% disagreeing with this claim.
About 2 in 3 (64%) likely 7th District voters believe that Pennsylvania is prepared to keep the November election safe and secure.
A solid majority (60%) of likely 7^th District voters agree that the replacement of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg should be chosen by the winner of the presidential election in November.

Nearly 2 in 3 (62%) of 7th District voters say President Trump has done either a poor or fair job handling the coronavirus outbreak.

PDF - Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District Poll - September 2020

Methodological Statement:
_{The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 414 likely voters in the 7^th Congressional District in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, between September 21 and 24, 2020. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (104) and cell phones (310). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 5.5% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. Interviewing was conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton, Pennsylvania under protocols established by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO.) The data has been weighted to gender, age, county, party, race and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters in the district. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of registered voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. To determine likely voters, only voters who have voted in 1 or more of the last 4 general elections (2016-2019), or who is a new registrant since November of 2016 were included in the sampling frame. In addition, only survey respondents from this frame who indicated that they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote in the November election were included in the sample. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed, please call 484-664-3444 or email [email protected].}

PENNSYLVANIA 7^th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL: SEPTEMBER 2020

Survey Instrument and Frequency Report

Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)

Democrat…………………………………47%
Republican………………………………. 40%
Independent……………………………… 12%
Other Party………………………………. 1%
Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania ….(END SURVEY)
Not Sure (Volunteered) …………………...(END SURVEY)

Q2: How likely are you to vote in the midterm elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?

Definitely Going to Vote……………………..91%
Very Likely To Vote………………………… 9%
Not Too Likely to Vote……………………… (END SURVEY)
Definitely not Voting ……………………….. (END SURVEY)
Not Sure (Volunteered)………..........................(END SURVEY)

Q3: Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections in November, would you say that you are very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all in the 2020 elections?

Very Interested…………………..…94%
Somewhat Interested………………5%
Not Interested At All……………….1%

Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he or she is doing their job.

First, President Donald Trump?

Approve…………………………………. 46%
Disapprove ………………………………50%
No opinion (Volunteered)………….4%

Q5:Next, Congresswoman Susan Wild?

Approve…………………………………. 41%
Disapprove ………………………………28%
No opinion (Volunteered)…………31%

ROTATE Questions 6-9

Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures.
For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable or unfavorable.

First , Susan Wild

Favorable……………………………………41%
Unfavorable…………………………………28%
Neutral/Not Sure…………………………22%
Haven't heard of Her………………………9%

Q7: Lisa Scheller

Favorable……………………………………28%
Unfavorable…………………………………23%
Neutral/Not Sure………………………...23%
Haven't heard of Her……………………26%

Q8: Donald Trump

Favorable……………………………………43%
Unfavorable…………………………………54%
Neutral/Not Sure………………………….3%

Q9: Joe Biden

Favorable……………………………………47%
Unfavorable…………………………………46%
Neutral/Not Sure…………………………7%
Haven't heard of him…………………<1%

Q10: Now, if the 2020 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump the Republican and Joe Biden the Democrat, would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

Trump ……………………………43% SKIP TO Q11
Biden…………………………….. 51% SKIP TO Q11
Neither/Other ……………………3% SKIP TO Q11
Not Sure (Volunteered)……..3%

Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for Donald Trump or Joe Biden? (OPTIONS ROTATED) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID “NOT SURE” IN Q10: N = 13)

Trump …………………………… 27%
Biden…………………………….. 13%
Not Sure (Volunteered)……60%

PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH LEANERS

Trump …………………………… 44%
Biden…………………………….. 51%
Neither/Other …………………… 3%
Not Sure (Volunteered)………… 2%

Q12: Now, if the election in the 7^th Congressional District was being held today and the race was between Susan Wild the Democrat, and Lisa Scheller the Republican, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

Susan Wild…………………………………. 51% SKIP TO Q14
Lisa Scheller………………………………. 38% SKIP TO Q14
Neither/Other …………………………….. 1% SKIP TO Q14
Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………… 11%

Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for Susan Wild or Lisa Scheller? (OPTIONS ROTATED) (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID “NOT SURE” IN Q12: N = 44)

Susan Wild………………………………….13%
Lisa Scheller……………………………….16%
Not Sure (Volunteered)………………71%

PA 7^TH CONGRESSIONAL RACE WITH LEANERS

Susan Wild…………………………………. 52%
Lisa Scheller………………………………. 39%
Neither/Other …………………………….. 2%
Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………… 8%

Q14: Which of the following issues do you consider the most important in your choice of candidates in the congressional race in the 7^th Congressional District? (Rotate Choices)

The Economy…………………….. 27%
Health Care………………………. 16%
The Coronavirus Pandemic…17%
Law and Order…………………….15%
Racial Justice……………………… 9%
National Security………………….5%
Other Issue (Vol)………………….6%
Not Sure……………………………....5%

Q15: Now thinking ahead to the November election, do you plan to vote in person at a polling station, or vote by mail?

Vote in Person………………………… 59%
Vote by Mail………………………….. 36%
Not sure (VOL) ……………………… 4%

Q16: Now thinking about the presidential election in November, do you think that Pennsylvania is very prepared, prepared, not very prepared or not prepared at all to keep this November’s elections safe and secure?

Very Prepared…………………..17%
Prepared……………………….....47%
Not Very Prepared…………….16%
Not Prepared at All……………..7%
Not Sure………………………......13%

Q17: Which of the following do you consider to be the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in November? (ROTATE OPTIONS)

Foreign interference in the election……11%
Voting machines malfunctioning……….....4%
Voter fraud………………………………………......39%
Suppression of individuals from voting…30%
Other factor (Volunteered)……………………7%
Not Sure…………………………………………........9%

Next I’m going to read you a few statements. For each statement I read tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement: First:

	Strongly Agree	Somewhat Agree	Somewhat Disagree	Strongly Disagree	Not Sure
Q18: There is a greater chance of election fraud if most Pennsylvanians vote by mail this year,	37%	14%	10%	34%	5%
Q19: As of today, I don’t feel safe voting in person.	14%	13%	16%	55%	2%
Q20: The replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg should be chosen by the winner of the presidential election in November.	52%	8%	7%	27%	6%

Q21: Which of the following best describes your activity in the 2016 Presidential Election? Did you vote for:

Donald Trump…………………………. 38%
Hillary Clinton…………………………. 39%
Some other candidate…………………7%
Or did you not vote in that election……16%
Not Sure (VOL)…………………………..1%

Q22: Next I have a few questions about the coronavirus and the government response to the pandemic. First, would you say that President Trump has done an excellent, good, fair or poor job handling the coronavirus outbreak?

Excellent……………………………….18%
Good………………………………………19%
Fair……………………………………….. 10%
Poor………………………………………. 52%
Not Sure (Vol)…………………………1%

Q23: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?

White/Caucasian………….. 80%
African-American………… 6%
Hispanic…………………… 5%
Latino……………………… 2%
Asian………………………. 3%
Native American………<1%
Mixed race………………….5%

Q24: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?

Catholic…………………………………. 30%
Protestant………………………………... 32%
Jewish……………………………………. 3%
Muslim…………………………………… 1%
Hindu……………………………………. 1%
Other Religion (Including agnostic)……21%
or Atheist …………………………………. 7%
Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………… 4%

Q25: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)

Less than High School……………… 3%
High School Graduate………………26%
Some college or technical school…...31%
College graduate (4 yr only)……… 24%
Graduate or professional degree…….17%

Q26: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?

Under $20,000………………… 9%
$20,000-$40,000……………… 16%
$40,000-$60,000……………… 17%
$60,000-$80,000……………… 20%
$80,000-$100,000…………….14%
Over $100,000……………….....25%

Q27: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)?

18-29………………………. 19%
30-49………………………. 27%
50-64………………………..29%
65 and over………………...24%

Q28: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)

Male…………………………………………………………..49%
Female………………………………………………………..51%
Other ……….…………………………………………………<1%

PRESIDENTIAL RACE CROSSTABS

	Trump	Biden	Neither/Other/Not Sure
OVERALL	44%	51%	5%
Male (49%)	49%	46%	5%
Female (51%)	39%	56%	5%
Democrat (47%)	7%	90%	4%
Republican (40%)	87%	10%	3%
Independent/Other Party (13%)	46%	37%	17%
College Degree (40%)	35%	61%	4%
No College Degree (60%)	51%	44%	5%
White (80%)	48%	48%	5%
Non-White (20%)	31%	62%	8%
Lehigh County (11%)	39%	56%	5%
Northampton County (14%)	49%	46%	6%
Monroe County (41%)	48%	50%	3%
18-29 (19%)	35%	56%	9%
30-49 (27%)	39%	51%	10%
50-64 (29%)	52%	48%	<1%
65 and Over (24%)	47%	50%	2%
Catholic (30%)	56%	39%	6%
Protestant (32%)	57%	41%	2%
Other Religion (38%)	24%	69%	7%
Trump Vote 2016 (38%)	96%	3%	1%
Clinton Vote 2016 (39%)	4%	94%	3%
No Vote/Other 2016 (24%)	25%	60%	15%

PA 7^th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT RACE CROSSTABS

	Wild	Scheller	Neither/Other/Not Sure
OVERALL	52%	39%	10%
Male (49%)	45%	46%	10%
Female (51%)	60%	32%	9%
Democrat (47%)	87%	8%	7%
Republican (40%)	15%	78%	7%
Independent/Other Party (13%)	42%	33%	26%
College Degree (40%)	61%	30%	10%
No College Degree (60%)	46%	45%	2%
White (80%)	52%	43%	6%
Non-White (20%)	53%	26%	21%
Lehigh County (11%)	57%	36%	8%
Northampton County (14%)	48%	40%	12%
Monroe County (41%)	50%	45%	5%
18-29 (19%)	53%	30%	18%
30-49 (27%)	55%	32%	14%
50-64 (29%)	48%	48%	4%
65 and Over (24%)	53%	43%	4%
Catholic (30%)	42%	50%	8%
Protestant (32%)	45%	47%	9%
Other Religion (38%)	67%	23%	11%
Trump Vote 2016 (38%)	12%	82%	7%
Clinton Vote 2016 (39%)	87%	7%	6%
No Vote/Other 2016 (24%)	57%	24%	19%