Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey - December 2023
PDF: December 2023 -- Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey
Key Findings:
- With the 2024 Presidential Election less than 1 year away, nearly 2 out of 3 (65%) of registered voters in Pennsylvania do not believe that Joe Biden deserves reelection for another term as President of the United States.
- A majority (57%) of Keystone State voters disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President of the United States.
- Despite fairly poor job approval ratings, Biden and the leading Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, are in a statistical dead heat (Biden 42%- Trump 41%) among registered voters in the Commonwealth.
- In matchups with other prominent Republicans seeking their party’s presidential nomination, Biden narrowly outpaces Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 41% to 39%, while trailing former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley 38% to 33%.
- Biden’s bid for a second term is undermined by voter views of his age with nearly 3 out of 4 voters in Pennsylvania agreeing that the 46th President is too old to serve another term.
- Trump’s path to regaining the presidency is complicated by views on his temperament, with nearly 7 in 10 Keystone State voters (68%) agreeing that Trump does not have the right temperament to be president.
- A year since being elected as Pennsylvania’s 48th Governor, Josh Shapiro maintains solid ratings, with a majority (51%) approving of his work as the Commonwealth’s chief executive. Comparatively, only about 1 in 5 (21%) Pennsylvania voters disapprove of his work leading the state.
- In a hypothetical presidential election matchup between Josh Shapiro and Donald Trump, the current Pennsylvania Governor holds an 11 point lead (48% to 37%) over the former president.
- A slim majority (52%) of Pennsylvania voters support the establishment of the right to an abortion in the state constitution, with 41% opposing this option.
- Most Pennsylvania voters (53%) believe the state should not allow a pregnant person to obtain a legal abortion fifteen weeks or more into a pregnancy.
Methodological Statement
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 421 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between November 20 and December 13, 2023. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (84) and cell phones (337). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of registered voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to three times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters’ files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton, Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 28.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick in conjunction with the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO). The survey was funded exclusively by the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [email protected].
2023 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey
Survey Instrument and Frequency Report
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
- Democrat……………………………………..43%
- Republican……………………………………40%
- Independent …………………………………..15%
- Other Party ………………………………….. 2%
- Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (TERMINATE)
Q2: How likely are you to vote in next year’s presidential election? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting?
- Definitely Voting…………………………….82%
- Very Likely to Vote………………………….15%
- Not Too Likely to Vote……………………… 3%
- Definitely Not Voting (TERMINATE)
Q3: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE)
First, Joe Biden
- Favorable……………………………………32%
- Unfavorable...………………………………55%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………………………13%
Q4: Next, Donald Trump
- Favorable……………………………………33%
- Unfavorable…………………………………56%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………… ………….11%
Q5: Ron DeSantis
- Favorable……………………………………26%
- Unfavorable…………………………………50%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………………………….21%
- Haven't Heard of Him..……………………… 3%
Q6: and Nikki Haley?
- Favorable……………………………………22%
- Unfavorable…………………………………38%
- Neutral/Not Sure…………………………….32%
- Haven't Heard of Her..……………………… 9%
Q7: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President?
- Approve…………………………………….34%
- Disapprove …………………………………57%
- No opinion (Volunteered) ………………… 9%
Q8: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as Governor of Pennsylvania?
- Approve…………………………………….51%
- Disapprove ……………………………….21%
- No opinion (Volunteered)……………28%
Q9: Do you think Joe Biden deserves to be re-elected as President, or not?
- Deserves re-election……………………….28%
- Does not deserve re-election…………65%
- Not Sure…………………………………… 7%
(Q10-13 ROTATED)
Q10: Now, if the 2024 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Biden……………………………………….42%
- Trump………………………………………41%
- Neither/Other Volunteered) …..…16%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………1%
Q11: And if the race was between Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Biden ……………………………………......…41%
- DeSantis………………………………….....…39%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered)………… 16%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………. 4%
Q12: And if the race was between Joe Biden and Nikki Haley who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Biden………………………….........…………… 33%
- Haley……………………………….........……… 38%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered)……….…. 21%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………. 8%
Q13: And if the race was between Donald Trump and Josh Shapiro who would you vote for?
- Trump……………………………………... 37%
- Shapiro……………………………………. 48%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered)………11%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………4%
Q14: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Democrat…………………………………. 46%
- Republican…………………………….…. 43%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered)…………...……5%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………..… 5%
(QUESTIONS 15-17 ROTATED)
Next, for each statement I read please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. First:
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Not Sure (VOL) |
|
Q15: Donald Trump does not have the right temperament to be president. |
50% |
18% |
10% |
21% |
1% |
|
Q16: Joe Biden is too old to serve another term as President. |
61% |
12% |
14% |
11% |
2% |
|
Q17: It would be better for the country if neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden were on the ballot in the 2024 election. |
41% |
22% |
19% |
15% |
4% |
Next, I’m going to read a list of functions that a President often performs in office. For each function that I mention please tell me if you think that Donald Trump or Joe Biden would be better at performing that function. First: (ROTATE OPTIONS)
|
|
Trump |
Biden |
Equal (VOL) |
Neither (VOL) |
Not Sure (VOL) |
|
Q18: Serving as commander in chief. |
47% |
42% |
1% |
10% |
1% |
|
Q19: Protecting the nation’s environment. |
36% |
53% |
2% |
8% |
2% |
|
Q20: Dealing with the conflict in the Middle East |
49% |
36% |
1% |
11% |
3% |
|
Q21: Creating jobs. |
51% |
36% |
2% |
9% |
3% |
|
Q22: Improving economic conditions for the middle class. |
47% |
38% |
2% |
12% |
2% |
|
Q23: Dealing with illegal immigration. |
54% |
33% |
1% |
11% |
1% |
Q24: How closely do you follow news and discussions regarding abortion and reproductive rights. Would you say you follow these matters: (READ LIST)?
- Very closely…………………………….40%
- Somewhat closely………………………42%
- Not very closely………………………...13%
- Not at all………………………………….4%
- Not Sure (Vol)…………………………. <1%
Q25: In 2022 The Supreme Court issued its decision in the Dobbs vs Jackson case, overturning the decision in the Roe vs. Wade case. Do you think the decision in the Dobbs vs. Jackson case had a major impact, minor impact or no impact on reproductive health and abortion access in the United States?
- Major……………………………………68%
- Minor……………………………………15%
- No Impact………………………………. 7%
98: Not Sure (VOL)……………….………. 10%
Q26: Which of the following best describes your view on the accessibility of abortions in Pennsylvania? (READ LIST)
- There is too much accessibility to abortions in Pennsylvania……………...19%
- There is too little accessibility to abortions in Pennsylvania……………… 23%
- There is the right amount of accessibility to abortions in Pennsylvania……33%
98: Not Sure (VOL)…………………………………………………………… 25%
Q27: Do you think that the right to an abortion should be established in the Pennsylvania Constitution, or not?
- Established in the Constitution………………….….52%
- Not Established in the Constitution………………...41%
98: Not Sure (VOL)……………………………………. 8%
Q28: In general, do you think Pennsylvania should or should not allow a pregnant person to obtain a legal abortion fifteen weeks or more into a pregnancy?
- Should Allow…………………………………………37%
- Should Not Allow…………………………………….53%
98: Not Sure (VOL)……………………………….10%
Q29: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
- White/Caucasian………………………………………….80%
- Black/African-American………………………………. 9%
- Hispanic/Latino………………………………………………4%
- Asian………………………………………....………………… 3%
- Native American………………………………………….<1%
- Mixed race…………………………………………..………… 4%
- or other……………………………………………….………. 1%
Q30: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?
- Catholic…………………………...…… 30%
- Protestant……………………………. 32%
- Jewish……………………………….... 3%
- Muslim…………………………..……. 1%
- Hindu…………………………….…...…<1%
- Other Religion (including agnostic) ….28%
- or Atheist…………………………….... 4%
98. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………2%
Q31: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
- Less than High School………………… … 3%
- High School Graduate………………… ….25%
- Some college or technical school……...30%
- College graduate (4 yr. only) ……………..27%
- Graduate or professional degree………….15%
98. Not sure (Volunteered)…………………. < 1%
Q32: In the 2020 Presidential election, did you vote for:
- Donald Trump…………………………………………….45%
- Joe Biden…………………………………………………..46%
- Another Candidate…………………………………………3%
- Or did you not vote in the 2016 presidential election………4%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………………………….1%
Q33: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
- Under $20,000……………………………… 5%
- $20,000-$40,000……………………………12%
- $40,000-$60,000……………………………17%
- $60,000-$80,000……………………………18%
- $80,000-$100,000…………………………..16%
- Over $100,000……………………………...30%
98. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………3%
Q34: In which of the following age categories does your current age fall? (READ LIST)
- 18-29…………………16%
- 30-49…………………31%
- 50-65…………………26%
- or Over 65……………27%
Q35: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
- Male…………………............................48%
- Female……………………………………………51%
- Or another category besides Male or Female……..1%
SELECTED CROSSTABS
Biden vs. Trump
|
|
Biden |
Trump |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
OVERALL |
42% |
41% |
16% |
1% |
|
Democrat |
80% |
5% |
15% |
1% |
|
Republican |
7% |
82% |
11% |
1% |
|
Independent |
33% |
34% |
31% |
2% |
|
Male |
36% |
47% |
16% |
1% |
|
Female |
48% |
36% |
16% |
1% |
|
18-29 |
41% |
35% |
24% |
<1% |
|
30-49 |
40% |
41% |
18% |
1% |
|
50-65 |
42% |
46% |
11% |
1% |
|
Over 65 |
44% |
40% |
14% |
1% |
|
No College |
38% |
45% |
17% |
<1% |
|
College Degree |
46% |
38% |
15% |
1% |
|
White |
39% |
45% |
16% |
<1% |
|
Persons of Color |
52% |
29% |
16% |
2% |
|
Protestant |
29% |
56% |
14% |
1% |
|
Catholic |
33% |
52% |
14% |
1% |
|
Non-Christian |
58% |
21% |
21% |
1% |
