Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2022 Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey - October Wave
PDF: Muhlenberg College / Morning Call 2022 Pennsylvania Midterm Election Survey - October Wave
Key Findings:
- The latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of likely voters finds Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz in a dead heat in their contest to serve as a United States Senator from Pennsylvania.
- As Election Day 2022 draws near, Pennsylvania voters appear closely divided in their preferences on who will represent the Commonwealth in the United States Senate but lean towards continued Democratic control of the Governor’s office in the state.
- In the race to become the Commonwealth’s next Governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a 14-point lead (54% to 40%) over his Republican opponent Doug Mastriano.
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- Likely voters in Pennsylvania prefer Republicans over Democrats in their congressional races by a margin of 48% to 43%.
- A majority (53%) of likely voters in the Keystone State disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance, a mark largely unchanged from September.
Methodological Statement
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 460 likely voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between October 24 and 28, 2022. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (144) and cell phones (316). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the survey is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race, educational attainment and the 2020 election results to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania with individuals who voted in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections, or who had voted in either the 2022 primary elections or 2021 general election, or if they were a new registrant since the 2020 Presidential Election. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 29.0. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [email protected].
SURVEY INSTRUMENT
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
- Democrat…………………………… 43%
- Republican…………………………. 45%
- Independent ………………………... 11%
- Other Party…………………………. 1 %
- Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)
- Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the midterm elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?
- Definitely Going to Vote……………………. 88%
- Very Likely To Vote…………………………12%
- Not Too Likely to Vote (END SURVEY)
- Definitely not voting (END SURVEY)
- Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)
Q3: Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections in November, would you say that you are very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all in the 2022 elections?
- Very Interested………………….86%
- Somewhat Interested……………13%
- Not Interested at All…………… 1%
- Not Sure………………………...<1%
Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job.
First, President Joe Biden?
- Approve…………………………42%
- Disapprove ……………………...53%
- No opinion (Volunteered)……… 5%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Approve |
43% |
42% |
|
Disapprove |
52% |
53% |
|
No opinion |
5% |
5% |
Q5: Next, Governor Tom Wolf?
- Approve…………………………46%
- Disapprove ……………………...43%
- No opinion (Volunteered)……… 11%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Approve |
45% |
46% |
|
Disapprove |
45% |
43% |
|
No opinion |
10% |
11% |
Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable.
(NAMES ROTATED RANDOMLY)
First, John Fetterman
- Favorable……………………………45%
- Unfavorable …………………………46%
- Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)……………...8%
- Haven't heard of him (Vol)…………2%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Favorable |
44% |
45% |
|
Unfavorable |
41% |
46% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
12% |
8% |
|
Haven’t heard of him |
4% |
2% |
Q7: Next, Mehmet Oz
- Favorable……………………………31%
- Unfavorable…………………………55%
- Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)……………...11%
- Haven't heard of him (Vol)………….3%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Favorable |
29% |
31% |
|
Unfavorable |
53% |
55% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
14% |
11% |
|
Haven’t heard of him |
5% |
3% |
Q8: Josh Shapiro
- Favorable……………………………50%
- Unfavorable …………………………31%
- Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)…………….. 16%
- Haven't heard of him (Vol)…………. 3%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Favorable |
49% |
50% |
|
Unfavorable |
31% |
31% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
16% |
16% |
|
Haven’t heard of him |
4% |
3% |
Q9: Doug Mastriano
- Favorable……………………………28%
- Unfavorable …………………………55%
- Neutral/Not Sure (Vol)……………...14%
- Haven't heard of him (Vol)…………. 4%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Favorable |
31% |
28% |
|
Unfavorable |
48% |
55% |
|
Neutral/Not Sure |
16% |
14% |
|
Haven’t heard of him |
5% |
3% |
Q10: Now, if the 2022 Pennsylvania governor’s election was being held today and the race was between Republican Doug Mastriano and Democrat Josh Shapiro would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Doug Mastriano (GO TO Q12)……………………….. 40%
- Josh Shapiro (GO TO Q12)…………………………… 53%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q12)……..2%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………… ……. 5%
Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for Doug Mastriano or Josh Shapiro?
(Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q 10: N =25)
- Doug Mastriano…………………………… 8%
- Josh Shapiro………………………………. 24%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………… 68%
GOVERNER’S RACE WITH LEANERS
MASTRIANO………………... 40%
SHAPIRO……………………. 54%
NEITHER/OTHER………….. 2%
NOT SURE……………………. 4%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Mastriano |
42% |
40% |
|
Shapiro |
53% |
54% |
|
Neither/Other |
1% |
2% |
|
Not Sure |
3% |
4% |
Q12: Now, if the 2022 United States Senate election was being held today and the race was between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- John Fetterman (GO TO Q14)………………….. 47%
- Mehmet Oz (GO TO Q14) …………………….. 46%
- Neither/Other (Volunteered) (GO TO Q14)…… 3%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………………………… 3%
Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for John Fetterman or Mehmet Oz?
(Asked only of those who answered “Not Sure” in Q 12: N =14)
- John Fetterman. …………………………………..7%
- Mehmet Oz ……………………………………… 22%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………………71%
SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
FETTERMAN……………….47%
OZ…………………………….47%
NEITHER/OTHER………… 3%
NOT SURE…………………. 2%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Fetterman |
49% |
47% |
|
Oz |
44% |
47% |
|
Neither/Other |
5% |
3% |
|
Not Sure |
3% |
2% |
Q14: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
- Democrat……………………… 43%
- Republican…………………….. 48%
- Neither/Other………………….. 2%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)………..7%
|
|
September |
October |
|
Democrat |
45% |
43% |
|
Republican |
46% |
48% |
|
Neither/Other |
2% |
2% |
|
Not Sure |
8% |
7% |
Q15. Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2022? (ROTATE OPTIONS)
- Foreign interference in the election…………. 5%
- Voting machines malfunctioning……………. 3%
- Voter fraud…………………………………….......16%
- The use of mail ballots ……………………….24%
- Suppression of individuals from voting………26%
- Other factor (Volunteered)…………………. 10%
- Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………….15%
|
|
December 2021* |
October 2022 |
|
Foreign interference in the election |
8% |
5% |
|
Voting machines malfunctioning |
6% |
3% |
|
Voter fraud |
24% |
16% |
|
The use of mail ballots |
19% |
24% |
|
Suppression of individuals from voting |
35% |
26% |
|
Other factor |
5% |
10% |
|
Not Sure |
4% |
15% |
*December 2021 survey was of registered voters, while October 2022 was likely voters.
Q16: Which of these best describes your actions in the 2020 presidential election? Did you vote for (READ LIST):
- Joe Biden…………………………………………………..46%
- Donald Trump……………………………………………..45%
- a candidate other than Biden or Trump…………………… 3%
- or did you note vote in the 2020 presidential election……. 4%
- Not Sure (VOL)…………………………………………… 2%
Q17: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
1. White/Caucasian…………………………..81%
2. African-American………………………… 8%
3. Hispanic……………………………………3%
4. Latino……………………………………... 1%
5. Asian……………………………………….1%
6. Native American………………………….. 1%
7. Mixed race………………………………… 3%
8. or other…………………………………….. 2%
Q18: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?
1. Catholic………………………………………26%
2. Protestant……………………………………. 29%
3. Jewish……………………………………….. 4%
4. Muslim………………………………………. 1%
5. Hindu……………………………………….. 1%
6. Other Religion (Including agnostic)………… 27%
7. or Atheist…………………………………….. 7%
8. Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………… 6%
Q19: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
1. Less than High School……………………….. 1%
2. High School Graduate……………………….. 23%
3. Some College or Technical School………….. 28%
4. College graduate (4 yr only)…………………. 28%
5. Graduate or professional degree……………... 20%
Q20: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
1. Under $20,000……………………………….. 7%
2. $20,000-$40,000……………………………...14%
3. $40,000-$60,000……………………………...14%
4. $60,000-$80,000……………………………...17%
5. $80,000-$100,000…………………………….13%
6. Over $100,000……………………………….. 25%
7. Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………….10%
Q21: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST)?
1. 18-34…………………………………………. 18%
2 35-50…………………………………………. 24%
3. 51-64…………………………………………. 28%
4. 65- and over………………………………….. 31%
Q22: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
- Male…………………………………………………………48%
- Female………………………………………………………51%
- Transgender Male……………………………………………0%
- Transgender Female………………………………………… 0%
- Or you do not identify as male, female or transgender……....1%
SELECTED CROSSTABS
Pennsylvania Governor
(Results in parenthesis are from the September 2022 Survey)
|
|
Mastriano |
Shapiro |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
Democrat |
5% (5%) |
89% (94%) |
3% (1%) |
4% (1%) |
|
Republican |
74% (76%) |
23% (17%) |
1% (2%) |
2% (5%) |
|
Independent |
39% (45%) |
46% (45%) |
6% (3%) |
10% (8%) |
|
No College Degree |
47% (52%) |
45% (44%) |
3% (1%) |
6% (3%) |
|
College Degree |
33% (32%) |
64% (64%) |
1% (2%) |
2% (3%) |
|
Male |
48% (43%) |
48% (51%) |
3% (2%) |
1% (4%) |
|
Female |
32% (41%) |
60% (55%) |
2% (1%) |
6% (2%) |
|
18-34 |
38% (33%) |
62% (60%) |
1% (4%) |
0% (4%) |
|
35-50 |
47% (38%) |
47% (59%) |
3% (0%) |
4% (3%) |
|
51-64 |
44% (44%) |
51% (52%) |
2% (2%) |
4% (3%) |
|
65 and Over |
33% (50%) |
54% (46%) |
4% (1%) |
8% (3%) |
United States Senate
|
|
Fetterman |
Oz |
Neither/Other |
Not Sure |
|
Democrat |
87% (89%) |
7% (6%) |
2% (3%) |
4% (2%) |
|
Republican |
11% (12%) |
87% (81%) |
1% (5%) |
1% (2%) |
|
Independent |
48% (49%) |
37% (39%) |
14% (8%) |
2% (5%) |
|
No College Degree |
39% (40%) |
54% (52%) |
5% (6%) |
2% (2%) |
|
College Degree |
56% (59%) |
40% (35%) |
2% (3%) |
3% (3%) |
|
Male |
43% (47%) |
51% (45%) |
4% (5%) |
2% (3%) |
|
Female |
53% (51%) |
43% (43%) |
3% (4%) |
2% (2%) |
|
18-34 |
61% (56%) |
37% (30%) |
1% (10%) |
0% (4%) |
|
35-50 |
35% (55%) |
57% (40%) |
5% (3%) |
4% (3%) |
|
51-64 |
46% (50%) |
51% (45%) |
2% (3%) |
2% (1%) |
|
65 and Over |
51% (40%) |
41% (54%) |
5% (3%) |
3% (3%) |
